Al-Ahli Jeddah vs NEOM — Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 11+ matches
Al-Ahli Jeddah59%
NEOM20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 84% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.69 · 11 matches
NEOM away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.78 + NEOM defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.10
NEOM attack 1.58 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Al-Nassr
Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Taawon
Al-EttifaqNEOM
Al-Hazm
Al-Fayha
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Fateh
Al Shabab
Al Kholood
Al Riyadh
Damac
Al Okhdood
Al NajmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al-Ahli Jeddah host NEOM on Thursday, 28 August 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs NEOM
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat NEOM 1-0 in Pro League on August 28, 2025.
Goals: I. Toney (23').
The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.