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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Kawasaki Frontale — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
5/3/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · FinalsAl Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah36%
×Draw23%
Kawasaki Frontale40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.56
Kawasaki Frontale
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.12
Kawasaki Frontale
2.35

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.96
Kawasaki Frontale
1.00

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
60%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Kawasaki Frontale
77%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
64%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
18%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
79%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
46%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
21%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
81%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
49%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
47%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.12 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
36%
level
23%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
40%

Kawasaki Frontale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Kawasaki Frontale

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Kawasaki Frontale 2-0 in AFC Champions League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Jeddah.