Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Istiqlol

1/28/2020

AFC Champions League · Play-offsKing Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah59%

×Draw22%

Istiqlol19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.97

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.88

Istiqlol

0.97

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 94% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

1.10

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.00

Istiqlol

0.83

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.10

Istiqlol

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

81%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Istiqlol

78%

Draw or Istiqlol

41%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

34%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

85%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

56%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

29%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

62%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

25%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

75%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.00 + Istiqlol defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Istiqlol attack 0.83 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

59%

level

22%

Istiqlol scores more

19%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff