Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–0 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Buriram United

Roberto Firmino 30'

Galeno 6'

R. Mahrez 4'

4/26/2025

AFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsAl Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah60%

×Draw23%

Buriram United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.81

Buriram United

0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 113% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

2.07

creates per match

0.68

1.03

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.07

Buriram United

0.68

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.03

Buriram United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

83%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Buriram United

77%

Draw or Buriram United

40%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

35%

Buriram United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

84%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

54%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

27%

Buriram United 1+ goals

57%

Buriram United 2+ goals

21%

Buriram United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

78%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Buriram United away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.07 + Buriram United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Buriram United attack 0.68 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

60%

level

23%

Buriram United scores more

17%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Demiral

Al-Ahli Jeddah · D

8.2

Match Events

4'

R. Mahrez↳ Roberto Firmino

6'

Galeno↳ Ibañez

10'

Peter ŽuljPenalty cancelled

30'

Roberto Firmino↳ M. Demiral

45'

Sasalak Haiprakhon

66'

G. Čaušić← S. Ratree

66'

Lucas Crispim← R. Maikami

69'

Gabri Veiga← Roberto Firmino

69'

M. Dams← E. Alioski

72'

Bissoli← S. Haiprakhon

72'

S. Chaided← M. Boakye

77'

Feras Al Brikan← I. Toney

78'

René Renner

83'

Alexsander← Ziyad Al Johani

83'

Mohammed Sulaiman← Ali Majrashi

88'

Supachai Chaided

88'

S. Tedsungnoen← N. Etheridge

90+6'

Wenderson GalenoPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliBuriram

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots7

5Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots7

5On Target2

6Off Target1

5Blocked4

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

571Total Passes296

515Accurate Passes227

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1