Al-Ahli Jeddah 5–1 Al Shorta: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Al Shorta

R. Mahrez 65', 61'

Feras Al Brikan 53'

Roberto Firmino 45+5', 14'

Sajjad Jasim 29'

11/4/2024

AFC Champions League Elite · League Stage - 4King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah77%

×Draw14%

Al Shorta9%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl Shorta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.84

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.80

Al Shorta

0.84

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 233% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.75

creates per match

0.43

1.25

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.75

Al Shorta

0.43

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.25

Al Shorta

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Shorta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

91%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Shorta

86%

Draw or Al Shorta

23%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

57%

Al Shorta wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

94%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

76%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

52%

Al Shorta 1+ goals

57%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

21%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

90%

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.75 + Al Shorta defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.80

Al Shorta attack 0.43 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

77%

level

14%

Al Shorta scores more

9%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Roberto Firmino

Al-Ahli Jeddah · M

9.9

Match Events

14'

Roberto Firmino↳ Ziyad Al Johani

16'

Roberto FirminoGoal confirmed

21'

Gabri VeigaPenalty confirmed

25'

Franck KessiéMissed penalty

26'

Ahmed Yahya

29'

Sajjad Jasim↳ Mohammad Dawood

45+5'

Roberto Firmino↳ Feras Al Brikan

46'

Faisal Jasim← Fahd Youssef

53'

Feras Al Brikan↳ Roberto Firmino

61'

R. Mahrez↳ Feras Al Brikan

65'

R. Mahrez↳ Ziyad Al Johani

66'

Riyad MahrezGoal confirmed

67'

I. Niang← Sajjad Jasim

67'

Mahmoud Al Mawas← Mohanad Ali

69'

Sumayhan Al Nabit← Gabri Veiga

69'

Alexsander← F. Kessié

69'

I. Toney← Feras Al Brikan

81'

Yaseen Al Zubaidi← R. Mahrez

81'

Bassam Shakir← Ameer Sabah

86'

Abdulrazzaq Qasim Kadah Subaihawi

87'

Mohammed Sulaiman← Ibañez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliAl

Overview

63%Possession37%

26Total Shots7

4Corners4

5Fouls10

Shots

26Total Shots7

10On Target3

12Off Target4

4Blocked0

21Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

540Total Passes323

475Accurate Passes233

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1