Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al Shabab: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Shabab

10/17/2025

Pro League · Round 5King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah47%

×Draw24%

Al Shabab29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl Shabab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.25

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.67

Al Shabab

1.25

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 127 away

2.01

creates per match

1.46

1.05

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.01

Al Shabab

1.46

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.05

Al Shabab

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Al Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Shabab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

71%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Shabab

76%

Draw or Al Shabab

53%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

25%

Al Shabab wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

81%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

50%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

23%

Al Shabab 1+ goals

71%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

36%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

62%

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.32 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.01 + Al Shabab defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al Shabab attack 1.46 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

47%

level

24%

Al Shabab scores more

29%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff