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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood — Division 1 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
2/2/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 19Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah43%
×Draw26%
Al Okhdood31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.41
Al Okhdood
1.16

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.53
Al Okhdood
1.44

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.88
Al Okhdood
1.28

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Okhdood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
69%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Okhdood
74%
Draw or Al Okhdood
57%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
20%
Al Okhdood wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
76%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
41%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
17%
Al Okhdood 1+ goals
69%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
32%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
58%
Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.53 + Al Okhdood defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Okhdood attack 1.44 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
43%
level
26%
Al Okhdood scores more
31%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood

Al Okhdood beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 in Division 1 on February 2, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.