Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al-Jazira: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Jazira

Mohanad Aseri 70' (pen)

Taisir Al Jassim 10'

Ali Ahmed Mabkhout 89'

2/19/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah56%

×Draw22%

Al-Jazira22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl-Jazira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.12

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.93

Al-Jazira

1.12

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 72% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.14

1.10

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.00

Al-Jazira

1.14

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.10

Al-Jazira

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Al-Jazira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al-Jazira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

78%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Jazira

78%

Draw or Al-Jazira

44%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

33%

Al-Jazira wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

85%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

57%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

30%

Al-Jazira 1+ goals

67%

Al-Jazira 2+ goals

31%

Al-Jazira 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

72%

Al-Jazira (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Al-Jazira away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.00 + Al-Jazira defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Al-Jazira attack 1.14 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

56%

level

22%

Al-Jazira scores more

22%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Milligan

Al-Ahli Jeddah · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

Taisir Al Jassim↳ Abdulfattah Asiri

45'

Ali Khasif

66'

Mbark Boussoufa

67'

Claudemir← Taisir Al Jassim

70'

Mohanad AseriPenalty

71'

Ahmad Alhashmi← Musallem Fayez

73'

Khalfan Mubarak Al Shamsi← Yaqoub Yousef

74'

Mohamed Jamal

78'

Momen Zakaria← Mohanad Aseri

78'

Salim Ali Ibrahim← Mohamed Jamal

83'

Salman Al Moasher← I. Fetfatzidis

87'

Ali Mabkhout

89'

Ali Ahmed Mabkhout↳ Khalfan Mubarak Al Shamsi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliAl-Jazira

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots15

6Corners7

17Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target7

2Off Target7

3Blocked1

6Inside Box10

2Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

542Total Passes449

462Accurate Passes361

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls11

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

5Offsides3