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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
5/27/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 34Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah56%
×Draw23%
Al-Fayha21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.82
Al-Fayha
1.00

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 82% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.01
Al-Fayha
0.96

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.05
Al-Fayha
1.63

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
79%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fayha
77%
Draw or Al-Fayha
44%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
32%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
84%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
54%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
27%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
63%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
26%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
73%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.01 + Al-Fayha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.82

Al-Fayha attack 0.96 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
56%
level
23%
Al-Fayha scores more
21%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 1-0 in Pro League on May 27, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.