Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Al Ain: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Ain

I. Fetfatzidis 50'

Aqeel Al Sahbi 26'

Aqeel Al Sahbi 53' (OG)

Nasser Al Shamrani 28'

3/13/2017

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah54%

×Draw23%

Al Ain23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl Ain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.16

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.88

Al Ain

1.16

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 62% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

2.00

creates per match

1.21

1.10

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.00

Al Ain

1.21

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.10

Al Ain

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Ain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

77%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Ain

77%

Draw or Al Ain

46%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

31%

Al Ain wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

85%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

56%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

29%

Al Ain 1+ goals

69%

Al Ain 2+ goals

32%

Al Ain 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

70%

Al Ain (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Al Ain away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.00 + Al Ain defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Al Ain attack 1.21 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

54%

level

23%

Al Ain scores more

23%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Abdulhakim Al Fatil

Al-Ahli Jeddah · D

7.6

Match Events

9'

Dawood Al Blooshi

26'

Aqeel Al Sahbi↳ Abdulfattah Asiri

28'

Nasser Al Shamrani↳ Omar Abdulrahman

50'

I. Fetfatzidis

53'

Aqeel Al SahbiOwn goal

55'

Ahmed Barman← D. Moreno

66'

Yousef Ahmad← Nasser Al Shamrani

69'

Aqel Al-Sahbi

71'

Ismail Ahmed

77'

Hussain Al Mogahwi← I. Fetfatzidis

79'

Diaky Ibrahim← Caio

87'

Mohanad Aseri← Salman Al Moasher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliAl

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots14

2Corners11

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots14

7On Target7

4Off Target3

6Blocked4

11Inside Box11

6Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

358Total Passes386

274Accurate Passes279

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5