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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha — Pro League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Abha
Abha
5/22/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 27King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah61%
×Draw20%
Abha18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.11
Abha
1.05

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 101% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.01
Abha
1.05

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.05
Abha
2.21

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Abha+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Abha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
82%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Abha
80%
Draw or Abha
39%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
38%
Abha wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
88%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
62%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
35%
Abha 1+ goals
65%
Abha 2+ goals
28%
Abha 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
77%
Abha (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Abha away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.01 + Abha defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.11

Abha attack 1.05 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
61%
level
20%
Abha scores more
18%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha drew 1-1 in Pro League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.