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Al Ahli Doha vs Al Hussein — AFC Cup 2018

Al Ahli Doha
Al Ahli Dohaadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Hussein
Al Hussein
4/19/2026AFC CupAFC Cup · Quarter-finalsZabeel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Ahli Doha51%
×Draw24%
Al Hussein26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Doha
1.73
Al Hussein
1.16

Al Ahli Doha creates 49% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Doha
1.75
Al Hussein
1.57

allows per match

Al Ahli Doha
0.75
Al Hussein
1.71

finishing

Al Ahli Doha+0.00on par
Al Hussein+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Doha ↓

Al Hussein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Ahli Doha or draw
74%
Al Ahli Doha or Al Hussein
76%
Draw or Al Hussein
49%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Doha wins by 2+
27%
Al Hussein wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Ahli Doha 1+ goals
82%
Al Ahli Doha 2+ goals
52%
Al Ahli Doha 3+ goals
25%
Al Hussein 1+ goals
69%
Al Hussein 2+ goals
32%
Al Hussein 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Doha (draw refunded)
66%
Al Hussein (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Doha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Al Hussein away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Doha attack 1.75 + Al Hussein defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Al Hussein attack 1.57 + Al Ahli Doha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Ahli Doha scores more
51%
level
24%
Al Hussein scores more
26%

Al Ahli Doha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Ahli Doha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Hussein

Al Ahli Doha beat Al Hussein 3-1 in AFC Cup on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadium in Dubai.