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Al Ahli Benghazi vs Shabaab al Jabal — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Benghazi
Al Ahli Benghazi
FT
3 – 1
Shabaab al Jabal
Shabaab al Jabal
11/29/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Ahli Benghazi62%
×Draw23%
Shabaab al Jabal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Benghazi
1.79
Shabaab al Jabal
0.74

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 142% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Benghazi
1.78
Shabaab al Jabal
0.79

allows per match

Al Ahli Benghazi
0.68
Shabaab al Jabal
1.79

finishing

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par
Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Benghazi ↓

Shabaab al Jabal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Ahli Benghazi or draw
85%
Al Ahli Benghazi or Shabaab al Jabal
77%
Draw or Shabaab al Jabal
38%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+
36%
Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals
83%
Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals
53%
Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals
26%
Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals
52%
Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals
17%
Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)
81%
Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Benghazi at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 69 matches

Shabaab al Jabal away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.78 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more
62%
level
23%
Shabaab al Jabal scores more
15%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Benghazi vs Shabaab al Jabal

Al Ahli Benghazi beat Shabaab al Jabal 3-1 in Premier League on November 29, 2021.