Al Ahli Benghazi 2–1 Military Union SC

Al Ahli Benghazi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Military Union SC

5/7/2026

Premier League · Championship Group B - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Ahli Benghazi44%

×Draw29%

Military Union SC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli BenghaziExpected goals in this matchMilitary Union SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.25

Military Union SC

0.93

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 11 away

1.78

creates per match

1.18

0.68

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.78

Military Union SC

1.18

allows per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.68

Military Union SC

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Military Union SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Benghazi ↓

Military Union SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Ahli Benghazi or draw

72%

Al Ahli Benghazi or Military Union SC

71%

Draw or Military Union SC

56%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

20%

Military Union SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

71%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

36%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

13%

Military Union SC 1+ goals

61%

Military Union SC 2+ goals

24%

Military Union SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

61%

Military Union SC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Benghazi at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 69 matches

Military Union SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.78 + Military Union SC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Military Union SC attack 1.18 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

44%

level

29%

Military Union SC scores more

28%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff