Al Ahli Benghazi 0–0 ASEC Mimosas: Result & Stats

Al Ahli Benghazi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ASEC Mimosas

9/18/2023

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Olympique de Sousse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Ahli Benghazi33%

×Draw35%

ASEC Mimosas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli BenghaziExpected goals in this matchASEC Mimosas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.82

ASEC Mimosas

0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.00

ASEC Mimosas

0.64

allows per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.00

ASEC Mimosas

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Benghazi ↓

ASEC Mimosas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Al Ahli Benghazi or draw

67%

Al Ahli Benghazi or ASEC Mimosas

65%

Draw or ASEC Mimosas

67%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

11%

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

56%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

20%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

5%

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals

56%

ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals

20%

ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

50%

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Benghazi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.00 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

ASEC Mimosas attack 0.64 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

33%

level

35%

ASEC Mimosas scores more

33%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff