Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahli Benghazi vs Al Hilal Omdurman — CAF Champions League 2019

Al Ahli Benghazi
Al Ahli Benghazi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
8/18/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundMartyrs of February Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Ahli Benghazi38%
×Draw31%
Al Hilal Omdurman30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Benghazi
1.04
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.89

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Benghazi
1.00
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.78

allows per match

Al Ahli Benghazi
1.00
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.08

finishing

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Benghazi ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahli Benghazi or draw
70%
Al Ahli Benghazi or Al Hilal Omdurman
69%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
62%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+
15%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals
65%
Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals
28%
Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals
9%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
59%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
22%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)
56%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Benghazi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.00 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 0.78 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more
38%
level
31%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
30%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Benghazi vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Ahli Benghazi 1-0 in CAF Champions League on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Martyrs of February Stadium in Benghazi.