Al Ahli Benghazi 1–0 Al-Andalus: Result & Stats

Al Ahli Benghazi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Andalus

4/7/2025

Premier League · East - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Ahli Benghazi71%

×Draw19%

Al-Andalus10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli BenghaziExpected goals in this matchAl-Andalus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.59

Al Ahli Benghazi

2.00

Al-Andalus

0.59

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 239% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 14 away

1.78

creates per match

0.50

0.68

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.78

Al-Andalus

0.50

allows per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.68

Al-Andalus

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Al-Andalus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Benghazi ↓

Al-Andalus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Ahli Benghazi or draw

90%

Al Ahli Benghazi or Al-Andalus

81%

Draw or Al-Andalus

29%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

45%

Al-Andalus wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

86%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

59%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

32%

Al-Andalus 1+ goals

45%

Al-Andalus 2+ goals

12%

Al-Andalus 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

88%

Al-Andalus (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Benghazi at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 69 matches

Al-Andalus away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.78 + Al-Andalus defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

Al-Andalus attack 0.50 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

71%

level

19%

Al-Andalus scores more

10%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff