Al-Ahli Atbara vs Hay Al Arab — Sudani Premier League 2019
Sudani Premier League · Round 34Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Al-Ahli Atbara33%
Hay Al Arab40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hay Al Arab creates 12% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 76 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al-Ahli Atbara ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches
Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13
Hay Al Arab attack 0.82 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Hay Al Arab at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Hay Al Arab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Al Merreikh
Al Khartoum
Hilal Obayed
Hay Al Wadi
Al Mourada
Alamal Atbara
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Ahly Shendi
Al Shorta
Merreikh El-FasherHay Al Arab
Al Hilal Kadougli
Wad Hashim Sennar
Al Rabta KostiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al-Ahli Atbara host Hay Al Arab on Tuesday, 13 October 2020 at 16:15. The match is part of the Sudani Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Sudani Premier League: Al-Ahli Atbara 0–3 Hay Al Arab
Hay Al Arab beat Al-Ahli Atbara 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 13, 2020.