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Al-Ahli Atbara vs Alamal Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
FT
2 – 4
Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
10/28/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara34%
×Draw27%
Alamal Atbara39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.19
Alamal Atbara
1.31

Alamal Atbara creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.13
Alamal Atbara
0.90

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.73
Alamal Atbara
1.24

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par
Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Alamal Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw
61%
Al-Ahli Atbara or Alamal Atbara
73%
Draw or Alamal Atbara
66%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
14%
Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
70%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
33%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
12%
Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
73%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
38%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
46%
Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
34%
level
27%
Alamal Atbara scores more
39%

Alamal Atbara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Ahli Atbara 2–4 Alamal Atbara

Alamal Atbara beat Al-Ahli Atbara 4-2 in Sudani Premier League on October 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.