Al-Ahli Atbara 1–2 Al Shorta: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Atbara

FT

1 – 2

Al Shorta

8/19/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 1Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara39%

×Draw26%

Al Shorta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli AtbaraExpected goals in this matchAl Shorta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

Al-Ahli Atbara

1.40

Al Shorta

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

1.13

creates per match

0.89

1.73

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara

1.13

Al Shorta

0.89

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara

1.73

Al Shorta

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Al Shorta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw

65%

Al-Ahli Atbara or Al Shorta

74%

Draw or Al Shorta

61%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+

18%

Al Shorta wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals

75%

Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals

41%

Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals

17%

Al Shorta 1+ goals

73%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

38%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)

53%

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more

39%

level

26%

Al Shorta scores more

35%

Al-Ahli Atbara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Ahli Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff