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Al-Ahli Atbara vs Al Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
FT
1 – 0
Al Khartoum
Al Khartoum
12/16/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 16Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara33%
×Draw27%
Al Khartoum39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.16
Al Khartoum
1.28

Al Khartoum creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.13
Al Khartoum
0.84

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.73
Al Khartoum
1.19

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par
Al Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Al Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw
61%
Al-Ahli Atbara or Al Khartoum
73%
Draw or Al Khartoum
67%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
14%
Al Khartoum wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
69%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
32%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
11%
Al Khartoum 1+ goals
72%
Al Khartoum 2+ goals
37%
Al Khartoum 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
46%
Al Khartoum (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Al Khartoum away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Al Khartoum defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Khartoum attack 0.84 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
33%
level
27%
Al Khartoum scores more
39%

Al Khartoum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Ahli Atbara 1–0 Al Khartoum

Al-Ahli Atbara beat Al Khartoum 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.