Al Ahed 0–1 Central Coast Mariners: Result & Stats

Al Ahed

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Coast Mariners

A. Kuol 84'

5/5/2024

AFC Cup · FinalSultan Qaboos Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Ahed33%

×Draw31%

Central Coast Mariners36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhedExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.02

Al Ahed

0.97

Central Coast Mariners

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.44

creates per match

1.17

0.88

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Al Ahed

1.44

Central Coast Mariners

1.17

allows per match

Al Ahed

0.88

Central Coast Mariners

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahed+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahed ↓

Central Coast Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahed or draw

64%

Al Ahed or Central Coast Mariners

69%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners

67%

Winning margin

Al Ahed wins by 2+

12%

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Ahed 1+ goals

62%

Al Ahed 2+ goals

25%

Al Ahed 3+ goals

7%

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

64%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

27%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Ahed (draw refunded)

48%

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahed at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahed attack 1.44 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.97

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.17 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Ahed scores more

33%

level

31%

Central Coast Mariners scores more

36%

Central Coast Mariners at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Farrell

Central Coast Mariners · D

7.7

Match Events

46'

Ronald Barcellos← C. Theoharous

60'

Ali Al Haj← Mohamad Haidar

64'

A. Kuol← R. Edmondson

66'

S. Roux← M. Di Pizio

75'

Hussein El Zein

81'

Walid Shour

83'

Nour Mansour← Hussein Al Zein

84'

A. Kuol↳ Ronald Barcellos

88'

Karim Darwich← Mohammad Al Marmour

89'

H. Steele← B. Tapp

90+7'

Felix Michel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlCentral

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots10

3Corners9

12Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target4

2Off Target2

2Blocked4

4Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

304Total Passes527

232Accurate Passes453

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0