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Al Ahed vs Al-Nahda — AFC Cup 2018

Al Ahed
Al Ahed
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
4/16/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Zonal FinalsKarbala International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Ahed43%
×Draw28%
Al-Nahda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahed
1.32
Al-Nahda
1.04

Al Ahed creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Ahed
1.44
Al-Nahda
1.20

allows per match

Al Ahed
0.88
Al-Nahda
1.20

finishing

Al Ahed+0.00on par
Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahed ↓

Al-Nahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Ahed or draw
71%
Al Ahed or Al-Nahda
72%
Draw or Al-Nahda
57%

Winning margin

Al Ahed wins by 2+
20%
Al-Nahda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Ahed 1+ goals
73%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
38%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
15%
Al-Nahda 1+ goals
65%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
28%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Ahed (draw refunded)
59%
Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahed at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Al-Nahda away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahed attack 1.44 + Al-Nahda defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Nahda attack 1.20 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Ahed scores more
43%
level
28%
Al-Nahda scores more
29%

Al Ahed at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahed vs Al-Nahda

Al Ahed beat Al-Nahda 1-0 in AFC Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Karbala International Stadium in Karbala.