Al Ahed 0–1 Al Kahrabaa: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Ahed

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Kahrabaa

Zahir Al Midani 20'

2/13/2024

AFC Cup · Zonal Semi-FinalsSultan Qaboos Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Ahed36%

×Draw30%

Al Kahrabaa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhedExpected goals in this matchAl Kahrabaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.06

Al Ahed

1.09

Al Kahrabaa

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.44

creates per match

1.25

0.88

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Al Ahed

1.44

Al Kahrabaa

1.25

allows per match

Al Ahed

0.88

Al Kahrabaa

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahed+0.00on par

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahed ↓

Al Kahrabaa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Ahed or draw

66%

Al Ahed or Al Kahrabaa

70%

Draw or Al Kahrabaa

64%

Winning margin

Al Ahed wins by 2+

14%

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Ahed 1+ goals

66%

Al Ahed 2+ goals

30%

Al Ahed 3+ goals

10%

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals

65%

Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals

29%

Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Ahed (draw refunded)

51%

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahed at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahed attack 1.44 + Al Kahrabaa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.25 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Ahed scores more

36%

level

30%

Al Kahrabaa scores more

34%

Al Ahed at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Zahir Al Midani

Al Kahrabaa · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

Zahir Al Midani↳ Amouri Faisal

34'

Hussein El Zein

46'

Hussein Dakik← Diaa Alhak Al Mohammad

46'

Ali Al Haj← Hasan Srour

55'

Felix Michel

59'

Karim Abou Zeid← L. Erwin

63'

Sajjad Khalil← D. Diémé

63'

Muhaimen Salim← Mahmoud Khalil

67'

Polo Nartey

78'

Abdullah Abd Al Amir← N. Polo

78'

D. Tetteh← Hayder Ahmed Tamim

79'

Shafiu Mumuni

82'

Ali Hadeed← Felix Michel

89'

Almuntaser Bellah Foad← Amouri Faisal

90'

Nour Mansour← Mohammad Al Marmour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots8

4Corners5

9Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots8

0On Target3

5Off Target0

2Blocked5

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

485Total Passes334

385Accurate Passes242

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

7Offsides1