Al Ahed 1–0 Al Jazeera: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Ahed

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Jazeera

10/1/2019

AFC Cup · Zonal FinalsCamille Chamoun Sports City Stadium (Bayrūt (Beirut))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Ahed44%

×Draw27%

Al Jazeera29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhedExpected goals in this matchAl Jazeera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Al Ahed

1.40

Al Jazeera

1.07

Al Ahed creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.44

creates per match

1.27

0.88

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Al Ahed

1.44

Al Jazeera

1.27

allows per match

Al Ahed

0.88

Al Jazeera

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahed+0.00on par

Al Jazeera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahed ↓

Al Jazeera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahed or draw

71%

Al Ahed or Al Jazeera

73%

Draw or Al Jazeera

56%

Winning margin

Al Ahed wins by 2+

21%

Al Jazeera wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Ahed 1+ goals

75%

Al Ahed 2+ goals

41%

Al Ahed 3+ goals

17%

Al Jazeera 1+ goals

66%

Al Jazeera 2+ goals

29%

Al Jazeera 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Ahed (draw refunded)

61%

Al Jazeera (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahed at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Al Jazeera away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahed attack 1.44 + Al Jazeera defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al Jazeera attack 1.27 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Ahed scores more

44%

level

27%

Al Jazeera scores more

29%

Al Ahed at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff