Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Afriqi Derna SC vs Wefaq Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Al Afriqi Derna SC
Al Afriqi Derna SC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wefaq Ajdabiya
Wefaq Ajdabiya
1/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group D - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Afriqi Derna SC46%
×Draw26%
Wefaq Ajdabiya28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Afriqi Derna SC
1.50
Wefaq Ajdabiya
1.11

Al Afriqi Derna SC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al Afriqi Derna SC
1.67
Wefaq Ajdabiya
0.47

allows per match

Al Afriqi Derna SC
1.75
Wefaq Ajdabiya
1.33

finishing

Al Afriqi Derna SC+0.00on par
Wefaq Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Afriqi Derna SC ↓

Wefaq Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Afriqi Derna SC or draw
72%
Al Afriqi Derna SC or Wefaq Ajdabiya
74%
Draw or Wefaq Ajdabiya
54%

Winning margin

Al Afriqi Derna SC wins by 2+
23%
Wefaq Ajdabiya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Afriqi Derna SC 1+ goals
78%
Al Afriqi Derna SC 2+ goals
44%
Al Afriqi Derna SC 3+ goals
19%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 1+ goals
67%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 2+ goals
30%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Afriqi Derna SC (draw refunded)
62%
Wefaq Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Afriqi Derna SC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Wefaq Ajdabiya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Afriqi Derna SC attack 1.67 + Wefaq Ajdabiya defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wefaq Ajdabiya attack 0.47 + Al Afriqi Derna SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Afriqi Derna SC scores more
46%
level
26%
Wefaq Ajdabiya scores more
28%

Al Afriqi Derna SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Afriqi Derna SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Afriqi Derna SC vs Wefaq Ajdabiya

Al Afriqi Derna SC beat Wefaq Ajdabiya 3-1 in Premier League on January 1, 2026.