Al Afriqi Derna SC 5–0 Al Morooj: Result & Stats

Al Afriqi Derna SC

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Morooj

4/22/2026

Premier League · Group D - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Afriqi Derna SC49%

×Draw23%

Al Morooj28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Afriqi Derna SCExpected goals in this matchAl Morooj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.28

Al Afriqi Derna SC

1.76

Al Morooj

1.28

Al Afriqi Derna SC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 26 away

1.67

creates per match

0.81

1.75

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Al Afriqi Derna SC

1.67

Al Morooj

0.81

allows per match

Al Afriqi Derna SC

1.75

Al Morooj

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Afriqi Derna SC+0.00on par

Al Morooj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Afriqi Derna SC ↓

Al Morooj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al Afriqi Derna SC or draw

72%

Al Afriqi Derna SC or Al Morooj

77%

Draw or Al Morooj

51%

Winning margin

Al Afriqi Derna SC wins by 2+

26%

Al Morooj wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Afriqi Derna SC 1+ goals

83%

Al Afriqi Derna SC 2+ goals

52%

Al Afriqi Derna SC 3+ goals

26%

Al Morooj 1+ goals

72%

Al Morooj 2+ goals

37%

Al Morooj 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Afriqi Derna SC (draw refunded)

63%

Al Morooj (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Afriqi Derna SC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Al Morooj away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Afriqi Derna SC attack 1.67 + Al Morooj defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Al Morooj attack 0.81 + Al Afriqi Derna SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Afriqi Derna SC scores more

49%

level

23%

Al Morooj scores more

28%

Al Afriqi Derna SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Afriqi Derna SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff