Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Afriqi Derna SC vs Al-Andalus — Premier League 2019

Al Afriqi Derna SC
Al Afriqi Derna SC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Andalus
Al-Andalus
3/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group D - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Afriqi Derna SC56%
×Draw22%
Al-Andalus22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Afriqi Derna SC
1.94
Al-Andalus
1.13

Al Afriqi Derna SC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Afriqi Derna SC
1.67
Al-Andalus
0.50

allows per match

Al Afriqi Derna SC
1.75
Al-Andalus
2.21

finishing

Al Afriqi Derna SC+0.00on par
Al-Andalus+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Afriqi Derna SC ↓

Al-Andalus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Afriqi Derna SC or draw
78%
Al Afriqi Derna SC or Al-Andalus
78%
Draw or Al-Andalus
44%

Winning margin

Al Afriqi Derna SC wins by 2+
33%
Al-Andalus wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Afriqi Derna SC 1+ goals
86%
Al Afriqi Derna SC 2+ goals
58%
Al Afriqi Derna SC 3+ goals
30%
Al-Andalus 1+ goals
68%
Al-Andalus 2+ goals
31%
Al-Andalus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Afriqi Derna SC (draw refunded)
72%
Al-Andalus (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Afriqi Derna SC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Al-Andalus away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Afriqi Derna SC attack 1.67 + Al-Andalus defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al-Andalus attack 0.50 + Al Afriqi Derna SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al Afriqi Derna SC scores more
56%
level
22%
Al-Andalus scores more
22%

Al Afriqi Derna SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Afriqi Derna SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Afriqi Derna SC vs Al-Andalus

Al Afriqi Derna SC beat Al-Andalus 4-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2026.