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Al-Adalah vs Al Jubail — Division 1 2018

Al-Adalah
Al-Adalah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jubail
Al Jubail
A. Okpotu 58'
A. Kack 54'
3/4/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al-Adalah52%
×Draw25%
Al Jubail23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Adalah
1.63
Al Jubail
1.00

Al-Adalah creates 63% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al-Adalah
1.39
Al Jubail
0.76

allows per match

Al-Adalah
1.24
Al Jubail
1.88

finishing

Al-Adalah+0.00on par
Al Jubail+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Adalah ↓

Al Jubail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Adalah or draw
77%
Al-Adalah or Al Jubail
75%
Draw or Al Jubail
48%

Winning margin

Al-Adalah wins by 2+
28%
Al Jubail wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Adalah 1+ goals
80%
Al-Adalah 2+ goals
48%
Al-Adalah 3+ goals
22%
Al Jubail 1+ goals
63%
Al Jubail 2+ goals
26%
Al Jubail 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Adalah (draw refunded)
69%
Al Jubail (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Adalah at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 94 matches

Al Jubail away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Adalah attack 1.39 + Al Jubail defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Al Jubail attack 0.76 + Al-Adalah defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al-Adalah scores more
52%
level
25%
Al Jubail scores more
23%

Al-Adalah at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Adalah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
A. Kack
58'
A. Okpotu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Adalah 1–1 Al Jubail

Al-Adalah and Al Jubail drew 1-1 in Division 1 on March 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Kack (54'), A. Okpotu (58').

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium in Al Ahsa.