Al-Adalah 1–1 Al Diriyah: Result & Stats

Al-Adalah

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Diriyah

N. Bouamer 78'

A. Subayt 38'

1/28/2026

Division 1 · Round 19Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Adalah33%

×Draw24%

Al Diriyah43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-AdalahExpected goals in this matchAl Diriyah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.59

Al-Adalah

1.37

Al Diriyah

1.59

Al Diriyah creates 16% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

1.94

1.24

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Al-Adalah

1.39

Al Diriyah

1.94

allows per match

Al-Adalah

1.24

Al Diriyah

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Adalah+0.00on par

Al Diriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Adalah ↓

Al Diriyah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Adalah or draw

57%

Al-Adalah or Al Diriyah

76%

Draw or Al Diriyah

67%

Winning margin

Al-Adalah wins by 2+

15%

Al Diriyah wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al-Adalah 1+ goals

75%

Al-Adalah 2+ goals

40%

Al-Adalah 3+ goals

16%

Al Diriyah 1+ goals

80%

Al Diriyah 2+ goals

47%

Al Diriyah 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al-Adalah (draw refunded)

44%

Al Diriyah (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Adalah at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 94 matches

Al Diriyah away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Adalah attack 1.39 + Al Diriyah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Al Diriyah attack 1.94 + Al-Adalah defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Adalah scores more

33%

level

24%

Al Diriyah scores more

43%

Al Diriyah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Diriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

K. N. Al Hamdhi

24'

A. Subayt

38'

A. Subayt↳ G. Laborde

49'

R. Al Ibrahim

70'

H. Al Majhad← R. Al Ibrahim

77'

M. Al Marri← R. Al Salem

78'

N. Bouamer↳ M. Al Marri

84'

S. Al Farhan← Z. Al Qahtani

85'

J. Qarradi← N. Bouamer

Al-Adalah

Al

23

Otaibi

2

Faraj

87

⚽

Subayt

15

Colley

21

Hameran

8

▼

7

88

14

11

9

A

12

8

19

6

27

16

95

15

7

▼

Ibrahim

98

▼

Salem

91

⚽

▼

Bouamer

Manager: Mohammed Ayari

70'▲H. Al Majhad←▼R. Al Ibrahim

77'▲M. Al Marri←▼R. Al Salem

85'▲J. Qarradi←▼N. Bouamer

Al-Adalah substitutes

13Biladi29Jamman23Khaldi17Majhad18Baladi88Suwaij24Marri9Qarradi

84'▲S. Al Farhan←▼Z. Al Qahtani

Al Diriyah substitutes

22Harbi78Asiri44Zaaqi82Zarie12Wadi6Qarni5Farhan10Dossari18Mutairi