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Al-Adalah vs Al-Ansar — Division 1 2018

Al-Adalah
Al-Adalah
FT
1 – 2
Al-Ansar
Al-Ansar
9/26/2018Division 1Division 1 · Round 5Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium (Al-Hasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Al-Adalah50%
×Draw24%
Al-Ansar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Adalah
1.65
Al-Ansar
1.10

Al-Adalah creates 50% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al-Adalah
1.39
Al-Ansar
0.95

allows per match

Al-Adalah
1.26
Al-Ansar
1.91

finishing

Al-Adalah+0.00on par
Al-Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Adalah ↓

Al-Ansar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Adalah or draw
75%
Al-Adalah or Al-Ansar
76%
Draw or Al-Ansar
50%

Winning margin

Al-Adalah wins by 2+
27%
Al-Ansar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Adalah 1+ goals
81%
Al-Adalah 2+ goals
49%
Al-Adalah 3+ goals
23%
Al-Ansar 1+ goals
67%
Al-Ansar 2+ goals
30%
Al-Ansar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Adalah (draw refunded)
66%
Al-Ansar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Adalah at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Al-Ansar away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Adalah attack 1.39 + Al-Ansar defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Al-Ansar attack 0.95 + Al-Adalah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Adalah scores more
50%
level
24%
Al-Ansar scores more
25%

Al-Adalah at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Adalah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Adalah vs Al-Ansar

Al-Ansar beat Al-Adalah 2-1 in Division 1 on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium (Al-Hasa).