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Akzhayik vs Taraz — Cup 2019

Akzhayik
Akzhayikadvanced
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Taraz
Taraz
10/19/2022CupCup · Semi-finalsStadion Akzhayik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Akzhayik56%
×Draw20%
Taraz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akzhayik
2.22
Taraz
1.38

Akzhayik creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Akzhayik
2.54
Taraz
1.90

allows per match

Akzhayik
0.85
Taraz
1.90

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par
Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

Taraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw
77%
Akzhayik or Taraz
80%
Draw or Taraz
44%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+
35%
Taraz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals
89%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
65%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
38%
Taraz 1+ goals
75%
Taraz 2+ goals
40%
Taraz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)
71%
Taraz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 2.54 + Taraz defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.22

Taraz attack 1.90 + Akzhayik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Akzhayik scores more
56%
level
20%
Taraz scores more
23%

Akzhayik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Akzhayik 5–3 Taraz

Akzhayik beat Taraz 5-3 in Cup on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akzhayik in Ural'sk.