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Akzhayik vs Kyzyl-Zhar — Cup 2019

Akzhayik
Akzhayik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kyzyl-Zhar
Kyzyl-Zhar
7/24/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 3Stadion im. Petra Atoyana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Akzhayik61%
×Draw22%
Kyzyl-Zhar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akzhayik
1.92
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.89

Akzhayik creates 116% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Akzhayik
2.54
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.93

allows per match

Akzhayik
0.85
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.29

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw
83%
Akzhayik or Kyzyl-Zhar
78%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar
39%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+
37%
Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals
85%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
57%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
30%
Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals
59%
Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals
22%
Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)
78%
Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 2.54 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 0.93 + Akzhayik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Akzhayik scores more
61%
level
22%
Kyzyl-Zhar scores more
17%

Akzhayik at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akzhayik vs Kyzyl-Zhar

Akzhayik beat Kyzyl-Zhar 1-0 in Cup on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Petra Atoyana in Ural'sk.