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Akzhayik vs FC Astana — Cup 2019

Akzhayik
Akzhayik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Astana
FC Astana
8/1/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 4Stadion im. Petra Atoyana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Akzhayik53%
×Draw24%
FC Astana23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akzhayik
1.73
FC Astana
1.04

Akzhayik creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Akzhayik
2.54
FC Astana
1.23

allows per match

Akzhayik
0.85
FC Astana
0.92

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par
FC Astana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

FC Astana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw
77%
Akzhayik or FC Astana
76%
Draw or FC Astana
47%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+
29%
FC Astana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals
82%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
52%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
25%
FC Astana 1+ goals
65%
FC Astana 2+ goals
28%
FC Astana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)
70%
FC Astana (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

FC Astana away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 2.54 + FC Astana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Astana attack 1.23 + Akzhayik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Akzhayik scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Astana scores more
23%

Akzhayik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Akzhayik 3–0 FC Astana

Akzhayik beat FC Astana 3-0 in Cup on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Petra Atoyana in Ural'sk.