Akzhayik 1–2 Akademiya Ontustik: Result & Stats

Akzhayik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Akademiya Ontustik

8/17/2023

1. Division · Round 20Stadion Akzhayik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Akzhayik55%

×Draw23%

Akademiya Ontustik22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkzhayikExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.10

Akzhayik

1.88

Akademiya Ontustik

1.10

Akzhayik creates 71% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 76 away

1.81

creates per match

1.24

0.96

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Akzhayik

1.81

Akademiya Ontustik

1.24

allows per match

Akzhayik

0.96

Akademiya Ontustik

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw

78%

Akzhayik or Akademiya Ontustik

77%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

45%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+

32%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals

85%

Akzhayik 2+ goals

56%

Akzhayik 3+ goals

29%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

67%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

30%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)

72%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.96 · 47 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 1.81 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + Akzhayik defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Akzhayik scores more

55%

level

23%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

22%

Akzhayik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff