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Akwa United vs Warri Wolves — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
C. Atshimene 58', 8' (pen)
U. Friday 25'
7/21/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 34Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Akwa United62%
×Draw24%
Warri Wolves14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.64
Warri Wolves
0.64

Akwa United creates 156% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 55 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Warri Wolves
0.67

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Warri Wolves
1.65

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Warri Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
86%
Akwa United or Warri Wolves
76%
Draw or Warri Wolves
38%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
34%
Warri Wolves wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
81%
Akwa United 2+ goals
49%
Akwa United 3+ goals
23%
Warri Wolves 1+ goals
47%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
14%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
81%
Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.64

Warri Wolves attack 0.67 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Akwa United scores more
62%
level
24%
Warri Wolves scores more
14%

Akwa United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
D. Ijeh
8'
C. AtshimenePenalty
25'
U. Friday
42'
J. Wisdom
58'
C. Atshimene
87'
L. Ozioma
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa United 3–0 Warri Wolves

Akwa United beat Warri Wolves 3-0 in NPFL on July 21, 2021.

Goals: C. Atshimene (8' pen, 58'), U. Friday (25').

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.