Akwa United 2–2 Nasarawa United: Result & Stats

Akwa United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nasarawa United

4/9/2023

NPFL · Round 13Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Akwa United60%

×Draw25%

Nasarawa United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akwa UnitedExpected goals in this matchNasarawa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.65

Akwa United

1.58

Nasarawa United

0.65

Akwa United creates 143% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 108 away

1.62

creates per match

0.69

0.61

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Akwa United

1.62

Nasarawa United

0.69

allows per match

Akwa United

0.61

Nasarawa United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par

Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Nasarawa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw

85%

Akwa United or Nasarawa United

75%

Draw or Nasarawa United

40%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+

32%

Nasarawa United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals

79%

Akwa United 2+ goals

47%

Akwa United 3+ goals

21%

Nasarawa United 1+ goals

48%

Nasarawa United 2+ goals

14%

Nasarawa United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)

80%

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Akwa United scores more

60%

level

25%

Nasarawa United scores more

15%

Akwa United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff