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Akwa United vs Kada City — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
FT
4 – 0
Kada City
Kada City
2/11/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 8Akwa Ibom Stadium (Uyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Akwa United62%
×Draw24%
Kada City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.61
Kada City
0.60

Akwa United creates 168% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 5 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Kada City
0.60

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Kada City
1.60

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Kada City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Kada City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
86%
Akwa United or Kada City
76%
Draw or Kada City
38%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
34%
Kada City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
80%
Akwa United 2+ goals
48%
Akwa United 3+ goals
22%
Kada City 1+ goals
45%
Kada City 2+ goals
12%
Kada City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
82%
Kada City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Kada City away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Kada City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kada City attack 0.60 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Akwa United scores more
62%
level
24%
Kada City scores more
14%

Akwa United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akwa United vs Kada City

Akwa United beat Kada City 4-0 in NPFL on February 11, 2019.

The match was played at Akwa Ibom Stadium (Uyo).