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Akwa United vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
CANC
00:00
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
4/22/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 32Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akwa United67%
×Draw22%
Jigawa Golden Stars11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.79
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.58

Akwa United creates 209% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
89%
Akwa United or Jigawa Golden Stars
78%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
33%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
39%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
83%
Akwa United 2+ goals
53%
Akwa United 3+ goals
26%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
44%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
12%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
85%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Akwa United scores more
67%
level
22%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
11%

Akwa United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Akwa United host Jigawa Golden Stars

April 22, 2020: Akwa United take on Jigawa Golden Stars in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Akwa United host Jigawa Golden Stars at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.