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Akwa United vs Go Round — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
FT
3 – 0
Go Round
Go Round
2/3/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Akwa United60%
×Draw25%
Go Round15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.58
Go Round
0.63

Akwa United creates 151% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 11 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Go Round
0.64

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Go Round
1.55

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Go Round+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Go Round →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
85%
Akwa United or Go Round
75%
Draw or Go Round
40%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
33%
Go Round wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
79%
Akwa United 2+ goals
47%
Akwa United 3+ goals
21%
Go Round 1+ goals
47%
Go Round 2+ goals
13%
Go Round 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
80%
Go Round (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Go Round away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Go Round defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Go Round attack 0.64 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Akwa United scores more
60%
level
25%
Go Round scores more
15%

Akwa United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akwa United 3 – 0 Go Round

Akwa United beat Go Round 3-0 in NPFL on February 3, 2019.