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Akwa United vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
6/19/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 28Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akwa United75%
×Draw18%
Adamawa United7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.99
Adamawa United
0.42

Akwa United creates 374% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
93%
Akwa United or Adamawa United
82%
Draw or Adamawa United
25%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
48%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
86%
Akwa United 2+ goals
59%
Akwa United 3+ goals
32%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
34%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
7%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
92%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.99

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Akwa United scores more
75%
level
18%
Adamawa United scores more
7%

Akwa United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akwa United vs Adamawa United

Akwa United beat Adamawa United 2-0 in NPFL on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.