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Akwa Starlets vs Remo Stars — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Remo Stars
Remo Stars
O. Lawal 12'
S. Anakwe 41'
1/2/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 4Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets51%
×Draw27%
Remo Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.46
Remo Stars
0.85

Akwa Starlets creates 72% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 99 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Remo Stars
0.78

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Remo Stars
1.44

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Remo Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
78%
Akwa Starlets or Remo Stars
73%
Draw or Remo Stars
49%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
26%
Remo Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
77%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
43%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
18%
Remo Stars 1+ goals
57%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
21%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
70%
Remo Stars (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
51%
level
27%
Remo Stars scores more
22%

Akwa Starlets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
O. Lawal
32'
A. Ekpe
41'
S. Anakwe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akwa Starlets 1 – 1 Remo Stars

Akwa Starlets and Remo Stars drew 1-1 in NPFL on January 2, 2022.

Goals: O. Lawal (12'), S. Anakwe (41').

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.