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Akwa Starlets vs Plateau United — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plateau United
Plateau United
I. George 28'
3/22/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 17Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets52%
×Draw27%
Plateau United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.44
Plateau United
0.79

Akwa Starlets creates 82% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 127 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Plateau United
0.65

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Plateau United
1.39

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Plateau United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
79%
Akwa Starlets or Plateau United
73%
Draw or Plateau United
48%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
26%
Plateau United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
76%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
42%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
18%
Plateau United 1+ goals
55%
Plateau United 2+ goals
19%
Plateau United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
72%
Plateau United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
52%
level
27%
Plateau United scores more
21%

Akwa Starlets at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
O. Doyeri
28'
I. George
35'
D. Nya
39'
O. Uche
76'
90+2'
C. Ekong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akwa Starlets vs Plateau United

Akwa Starlets beat Plateau United 1-0 in NPFL on March 22, 2021.

Goals: I. George (28').

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.