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Akwa Starlets vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
CANC
00:00
MFM
MFM
4/26/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 33Uyo Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets55%
×Draw27%
MFM18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.44
MFM
0.71

Akwa Starlets creates 103% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
MFM
1.41

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
82%
Akwa Starlets or MFM
73%
Draw or MFM
45%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
28%
MFM wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
76%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
42%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
18%
MFM 1+ goals
51%
MFM 2+ goals
16%
MFM 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
75%
MFM (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

MFM attack 0.49 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
55%
level
27%
MFM scores more
18%

Akwa Starlets at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akwa Starlets face MFM (NPFL)

NPFL returns with Akwa Starlets hosting MFM. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Akwa Starlets host MFM at Uyo Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.