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Akwa Starlets vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kwara United
Kwara United
7/1/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 30Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets56%
×Draw26%
Kwara United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.52
Kwara United
0.75

Akwa Starlets creates 103% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 128 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
82%
Akwa Starlets or Kwara United
74%
Draw or Kwara United
44%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
29%
Kwara United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
78%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
45%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
20%
Kwara United 1+ goals
53%
Kwara United 2+ goals
17%
Kwara United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
75%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
56%
level
26%
Kwara United scores more
18%

Akwa Starlets at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa Starlets 2–0 Kwara United

Akwa Starlets beat Kwara United 2-0 in NPFL on July 1, 2021.

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.