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Akwa Starlets vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
I. George 76' (pen)
A. Philip 48'
C. Ekong 38'
J. Henchong 30'
R. Ali 10' (pen)
2/28/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 13Uyo Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets55%
×Draw26%
Kano Pillars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.51
Kano Pillars
0.78

Akwa Starlets creates 94% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 121 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
81%
Akwa Starlets or Kano Pillars
74%
Draw or Kano Pillars
45%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
28%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
78%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
44%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
19%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
54%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
18%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
74%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.51

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
55%
level
26%
Kano Pillars scores more
19%

Akwa Starlets at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
R. AliPenalty
15'
M. Jibrin
25'
N. Kadiang
30'
J. Henchong
38'
C. Ekong
48'
A. Philip
76'
I. GeorgePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa Starlets 3–2 Kano Pillars

Akwa Starlets beat Kano Pillars 3-2 in NPFL on February 28, 2021.

Goals: R. Ali (10' pen), J. Henchong (30'), C. Ekong (38'), A. Philip (48'), I. George (76' pen).

The match was played at Uyo Township Stadium in Uyo.