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Akwa Starlets vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
2 – 0
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
1/25/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 17Uyo Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akwa Starlets61%
×Draw23%
Jigawa Golden Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.73
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.74

Akwa Starlets creates 134% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
84%
Akwa Starlets or Jigawa Golden Stars
77%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
39%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
35%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
82%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
52%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
25%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
52%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
17%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
80%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
61%
level
23%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
16%

Akwa Starlets at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa Starlets 2–0 Jigawa Golden Stars

Akwa Starlets beat Jigawa Golden Stars 2-0 in NPFL on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Uyo Township Stadium in Uyo.