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Akwa Starlets vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
Y. Abdulazeez 90'
2/17/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 13Nest of Champions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Akwa Starlets63%
×Draw24%
Gombe United14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.69
Gombe United
0.64

Akwa Starlets creates 164% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
86%
Akwa Starlets or Gombe United
76%
Draw or Gombe United
37%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
36%
Gombe United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
82%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
50%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
24%
Gombe United 1+ goals
47%
Gombe United 2+ goals
14%
Gombe United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
82%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
63%
level
24%
Gombe United scores more
14%

Akwa Starlets at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
U. Abbas
61'
A. Yusuf
65'
A. Abdulquadr
90'
Y. Abdulazeez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akwa Starlets 0 – 1 Gombe United

Gombe United beat Akwa Starlets 1-0 in NPFL on February 17, 2022.

Goals: Y. Abdulazeez (90').

The match was played at Nest of Champions in Uyo.