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Akwa Starlets vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
4 – 1
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
M. Effiong 67', 17', 1'
F. Ajayi 56'
E. Unegbe 11'
1/5/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 12Uyo Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akwa Starlets69%
×Draw20%
Adamawa United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.92
Adamawa United
0.58

Akwa Starlets creates 231% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
90%
Akwa Starlets or Adamawa United
80%
Draw or Adamawa United
31%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
43%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
85%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
57%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
30%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
44%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
12%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
87%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
69%
level
20%
Adamawa United scores more
10%

Akwa Starlets at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
M. Effiong
11'
E. Unegbe
17'
M. Effiong
52'
56'
F. Ajayi
60'
67'
M. Effiong
85'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa Starlets 4–1 Adamawa United

Akwa Starlets beat Adamawa United 4-1 in NPFL on January 5, 2020.

Goals: M. Effiong (1', 17', 67'), E. Unegbe (11'), F. Ajayi (56').

The match was played at Uyo Township Stadium in Uyo.