Aktobe 0–2 Zhenys: Result & Stats | Premier League

Aktobe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zhenys

Adilio 90'

O. Omirtaev 59' (OG)

8/3/2025

Premier League · Round 19Koblandy Batyr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aktobe48%

×Draw26%

Zhenys26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AktobeExpected goals in this matchZhenys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Aktobe

1.52

Zhenys

1.04

Aktobe creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

1.66

creates per match

0.91

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Aktobe

1.66

Zhenys

0.91

allows per match

Aktobe

1.17

Zhenys

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aktobe+0.00on par

Zhenys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aktobe ↓

Zhenys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aktobe or draw

74%

Aktobe or Zhenys

74%

Draw or Zhenys

52%

Winning margin

Aktobe wins by 2+

24%

Zhenys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aktobe 1+ goals

78%

Aktobe 2+ goals

45%

Aktobe 3+ goals

20%

Zhenys 1+ goals

65%

Zhenys 2+ goals

28%

Zhenys 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Aktobe (draw refunded)

65%

Zhenys (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aktobe at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Zhenys away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aktobe attack 1.66 + Zhenys defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zhenys attack 0.91 + Aktobe defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aktobe scores more

48%

level

26%

Zhenys scores more

26%

Aktobe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aktobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

25'

31'

37'

46'

A. Tanzharikov← N. Andjelkovic

46'

E. Seydakhmet← G. Zhukov

46'

R. Batalha← A. Baltabekov

59'

O. OmirtaevOwn goal

60'

A. Shushenachev← O. Omirtaev

60'

I. Umaev← A. Doumbouya

67'

70'

72'

76'

77'

E. Lobjanidze← D. Karaman

78'

83'

83'

90+4'

90'

Aktobe

Zhenys

1

25

10

63

14

8

▼

Karaman

7

Kuat

4

▼

Sovet

23

▼

Baltabeko

19

⚽

Adilio

11

▼

25

5

23

26

▼

Andjelkov

88

Vatajelu

7

Sosah

4

▼

Agbo

12

▼

Doumbouya

30

Korzun

19

🥅

▼

Omirtaev

20

▼

Zhukov

46'▲A. Tanzharikov←▼N. Andjelkovic

46'▲E. Seydakhmet←▼G. Zhukov

60'▲A. Shushenachev←▼O. Omirtaev

60'▲I. Umaev←▼A. Doumbouya

76'▲D. Usenov←▼U. Agbo

Aktobe substitutes

52Kusainov42Baydavletov31Tanzharikov29Usenov22Seydakhmet14Shvyrev11Shushenachev10Umaev2Skvortsov1Trofimets

46'▲R. Batalha←▼A. Baltabekov

70'▲G. Martins←▼A. Adil

77'▲E. Lobjanidze←▼D. Karaman

90+4'▲A. Adilov←▼S. Sovet

Zhenys substitutes

87Martins39Sadovski20Batalha17Adilov13Abuov9Lobjanidze6Zhunussov5Mukanov2Nabikhanov

Premier League: Aktobe 0–2 Zhenys

Zhenys beat Aktobe 2-0 in Premier League on August 3, 2025.

Goals: O. Omirtaev (59' o.g.), Adilio (90').

The match was played at Koblandy Batyr Stadium in Aktobe.

Aktobe vs Zhenys — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Aktobe 0–2 Zhenys